clair017

11/28/16 3:30pm: The Michigan results are certified, handing the Great Lakes state to Trump. 11/14/16 5:30pm: The Trump camp failed to request a recount in New Hampshire before the 5pm deadline. Clinton takes the Granite state's four electoral votes. 11/10/16 7:45pm: Arizona added to Trump's column. 11/9/16 11:30am: The AP calls Minnesota for Clinton. That is a narrow hold for Democrats. 11/9/16 2:40am: Wisconsin puts Trump over the top; another flip for the Republican. 11/9/16 2:15am: Alaska stays in the Republican column. 11/9/16 2:10am: And the second congressional district in Nebraska is called for Trump. 11/9/16 2am: The Maine call is in and we have the second electoral vote split in the Maine/Nebraska era. Maine's second congressional district follows Nebraska's second district in 2008 in going against the statewide result. Clinton wins the state and CD1 while Trump takes CD2. 11/9/16 1:40pm: Pennsylvania flips to Trump. That 20 electoral votes puts Trump within r...

Changes (11/8/16): Election Day. As there were only a few more polls added to the mix on the final day of the 2016 campaign -- or in just under the wire yesterday -- there were only a few subtle changes to the figures here at FHQ.  South Carolina pushed past Texas toward the partisan line on the Electoral College Spectrum below, but neither will budge from the Trump column. Both had at various points shown to be much closer than normal. Neither, however, will end up anywhere other than red as the results trickle in.  Wisconsin once again traded spots with Michigan on the Spectrum. Similar to the two Trump states above, neither state seems poised to jump the partisan line away from Clinton. The trajectory of the race has headed in that general direction here at the end, but it is likely that that was more consolidation of partisan support (for Trump) than any wholesale shift away from Clinton or the Democrats. The temptation is there to suggest that the tightening in states lik...

New State Polls (11/7/16) Morning Polls State Poll Date Margin of Error Sample Clinton Trump Undecided Poll Margin FHQ Margin Colorado Remington 11/1-11/2 +/-2.27% 1863 likely voters 42 41 6 +1 +3.91 Florida Remington 11/1-11/2 +/-2.02% 2352 likely voters 45 48 3 +3 -- Florida Quinnipiac 11/3-11/6 +/-3.3% 884 likely voters 46 45 5 +1 +1.98 Georgia Landmark 11/6 +/-2.8% 1200 likely voters 46 49 2 +3 +3.04 Missouri Emerson 11/4-11/5 +/-3.5% 750 likely voters 41 47 4 +6 +8.02 Nevada Remington 11/1-11/2 +/-2.31% 1793 likely voters 45 46 4 +1 -- Nevada Emerson 11/4-11/5 +/-3.9% 600 likely voters 47 46 2 +1 +0.96 New Hampshire Emerson 11/4-11/5 +/-3.0% 1000 likely voters 45 44 3 +1 -- New Hampshire UNH/WMUR 11/3-11/6 +/-3.7% 707 likely voters 49 38 4 +11 +4.82 New Mexico ZiaPoll 11/6 +/-1.8% 8439 likely voters 46 44 1 +2 +6.44 North Carolina Remington 11/1-11/2 +/-1.92% 2596 likely voters 45 48 2 +3 -- North Carolina Quinnipiac 11/3-11/6 +/-3.3% 870 likely voters 47 45 4 +2 -- North Carolina...