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New State Polls (9/30/16) State Poll Date Margin of Error Sample Clinton Trump Undecided Poll Margin FHQ Margin Florida Mason-Dixon 9/27-9/29 +/- 3.5% 820 likely voters 46 42 4 +4 -- Florida Opinion Savvy 9/28-9/29 +/- 4.0% 619 likely voters 47 46 1 +1 +2.10 Michigan Glengariff Group/Detroit News 9/27-9/28 +/- 4.0% 600 likely voters 42 35 10 +7 +5.99 Nevada Suffolk 9/27-9/29 +/- 4.4% 500 likely voters 44 38 6 +6 +0.24 New Hampshire MassINC/WBUR 9/27-9/29 +/- 4.4% 502 likely voters 42 35 4 +7 +5.76 Polling Quick Hits: The end of the week brought another wave of state-level polls that were in the field completely after the first presidential debate earlier in the week. And that has folks out looking high and low for debate effects in the results. FHQ would urge some patience. There simply has not been as much state-level polling in the time since that debate to arrive at any conclusion. Now, there have been a series of national polls -- national polls with a time series with fairly regul...

New State Polls (9/29/16) State Poll Date Margin of Error Sample Clinton Trump Undecided Poll Margin FHQ Margin California Survey USA 9/27-9/28 +/- 3.6% 732 likely voters 59 33 3 +26 +21.47 Colorado Public Policy Polling 9/27-9/28 +/- 3.7% 694 likely voters 46 40 6 +6 +3.42 Florida Public Policy Polling 9/27-9/28 +/- 3.4% 826 likely voters 45 43 8 +2 +2.08 Missouri Remington Research 9/26-9/27 +/- 3.0% 1279 likely voters 39 49 -- +10 +7.45 North Carolina Public Policy Polling 9/27-9/28 +/- 3.3% 861 likely voters 44 42 7 +2 +1.15 Pennsylvania Public Policy Polling 9/27-9/28 +/- 3.3% 886 likely voters 45 39 8 +6 +4.79 South Carolina Winthrop University 9/18-9/26 +/- 4.5% 475 likely voters 38 42 11 +4 +7.91 Virginia Public Policy Polling 9/27-9/28 +/- 3.4% 811 likely voters 46 40 5 +6 +5.62 Polling Quick Hits: Thursday brought eight new state-level polls, seven of which were in the field after Monday's first presidential debate. Either the jury is still out on the true impact or the d...

New State Polls (9/28/16) State Poll Date Margin of Error Sample Clinton Trump Undecided Poll Margin FHQ Margin Michigan Mitchell Research 9/27 +/- 2.2% 1956 likely voters 46 41 4 +5 +5.92 Nebraska Emerson 9/25-9/27 +/- 3.6% 700 likely voters 29.3 55.7 6.6 +26.4 +20.59 Washington Emerson 9/25-9/26 +/- 3.6% 700 likely voters 44.2 38.4 5.6 +5.8 +11.19 Polling Quick Hits: Midweek brought the first post-debate state-level poll and a couple of others from Emerson that overlapped with the first debate on Monday night. Michigan: That first completely post-debate poll was from Mitchell Research out of the Great Lakes state. Throughout September, the Michigan average margin has narrowed as the polls have ranged from about a one to six point Clinton advantage. This latest Mitchell poll is on the upper side of that spread, but shaves a point off the early September survey from the firm. In the grand scheme of things in this race, it represents no real change. However, it is noteworthy that this i...