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The Electoral College Map (10/31/16)

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The Electoral College Map (10/29/16)

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Maine Lost its Presidential Primary

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Since early 2016, a trend has evolved in how the 2020 presidential nomination process will operate. In that time, several formerly caucus states have abandoned the format in favor of a state-funded primary. That has happened in states like Idaho and Nebraska where there was already a primary option included in state law, but also in states like Colorado and Minnesota , where citizen-driven initiative or the legislature, respectively, created the primary option. The latter group used to include the caucus-to-primary shift in Maine . Used to . The 2016 effort to re-establish a presidential primary in the Pine Tree state passed and became law, but most of the provisions in the bill ( then law ) expired on December 1, 2018. The sole surviving component -- the only part that did not expire -- was the study the Maine secretary of state was to have conducted with respect to the funding of the election. And while that report was issued on December 1, 2017, as called for in the statute, que...
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The Electoral College Map (9/25/16)

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New State Polls (9/25/16) State Poll Date Margin of Error Sample Clinton Trump Undecided Poll Margin FHQ Margin Colorado YouGov/CBS 9/21-9/23 +/- 4.4% 991 likely voters 40 39 10 +1 +4.04 Maine UNH/Press Herald 9/15-9/20 +/- 4.3% 513 likely voters 40 36 7 +4 +4.95 Missouri YouGov/CBS 9/21-9/23 +/- 3.9% 1087 likely voters 37 46 7 +9 +7.23 Utah Dan Jones & Associates/Hinkley Institute 9/12-9/19 +/- 3.4% 820 likely voters 25 34 8 +9 +9.95 Virginia YouGov/CBS 9/21-9/23 +/- 3.3% 1237 likely voters 45 37 8 +8 +6.22 Polling Quick Hits: If it is Sunday, it usually means some battleground polls from YouGov/CBS. Today was no exception as the internet-based polling firm served up new surveys from Colorado, Missouri and Virginia. Plus there was another poll added in from UNH in Maine. [...and a late add from Utah.] Most significantly, Colorado and Maine jump the Lean/Toss Up line on the Clinton side of the Spectrum into the Toss Up Clinton area. Now, that line -- the 5 point mark -- is complete...
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#InvisiblePrimary: Visible -- On DNC Debate Requirements and Candidate Strategy

Thoughts on the invisible primary and links to the movements during the day that was... Recently, the Democratic National Committee announced a series of basically monthly primary debates  that will start in June 2019 and run into primary season in 2020. Although the qualifications for participation were left undetermined for the time being, the announcement was not without some important rules-related revelations. Most inventive among them was the plan to deal with an expected slew of candidates, a number likely to extend beyond what one debate stage could accommodate. Rather than repeat the Republican undercard/main event debate method from 2016, the DNC demonstrated it had learned some lessons and opted instead to randomize the participants across a doubleheader in each of at least the first two planned debates. And the announcement has prompted another attempt at examining the importance primary debates on the candidates' fortunes. But as news of the DNC debates consideration...
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