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New State Polls (8/31/16) State Poll Date Margin of Error Sample Clinton Trump Undecided Poll Margin FHQ Margin New York Emerson 8/28-8/30 +/- 3.4% 800 likely voters 52.1 34.2 2.6 +17.9 +19.62 North Carolina Emerson 8/27-8/29 +/- 3.4% 800 likely voters 43.4 44.8 2 +1.4 +1.80 Wisconsin Marquette 8/25-8/28 +/- 5.0% 650 likely voters 41 38 7 +3 -- Wisconsin Monmouth 8/27-8/30 +/- 4.9% 404 likely voters 43 38 8 +5 +8.26 Polling Quick Hits: The close of August brought a couple of new surveys from Wisconsin, one from New York and a leftover from yesterday out of North Carolina. Also, FHQ should mention the IPSOS/Reuters state-level tracking polls floating around out there. Typically, the modus operandi here is take any poll and add it into the mix with the caveat that there is a preference for likely voter screens and multi-candidate results when available (when there are multiple versions of the results). But the IPSOS data is tricky on at least two fronts. First, the dates of aggregation...

Latest Update New State Polls (8/30/16) State Poll Date Margin of Error Sample Clinton Trump Undecided Poll Margin FHQ Margin Pennsylvania Monmouth 8/26-8/29 +/- 4.9% 402 likely voters 48 40 4 +8 +6.08 Polling Quick Hits: The national polls have begun to show a slight redirection over the course of the last week or so; an end to the Clinton bounce /Trump decline that defined the immediate aftermath of the convention period. That could be the start of a settling into the narrowing that Jim Campbell found marked the general election campaign. But that same sort of trend has not as clearly extended to the state level. It should be noted that that is not necessarily a function of a systematic difference across national and state-level polls. Instead, it is more attributable to the lack of a steady stream of state survey releases. With 70 days until election day, things have slowed to a trickle. Granted, things looked similar four years ago  (one poll), but that was during convention s...

Latest Update New State Polls (8/29/16) State Poll Date Margin of Error Sample Clinton Trump Undecided Poll Margin FHQ Margin Arizona OH Predictive Insights 8/25-8/27 +/- 3.63% 728 likely voters 40 39 13 +1 +0.94 Michigan Emerson 8/25-8/28 +/- 3.4% 800 likely voters 44.9 39.5 6.7 +5.4 +7.52 Ohio Emerson 8/25-8/27 +/- 3.4% 800 likely voters 42.5 43.4 2.2 +0.90 +2.20 Pennsylvania Emerson 8/25-8/28 +/- 3.4% 800 likely voters 45.9 42.7 2.9 +3.2 +5.95 Polling Quick Hits: Monday's batch of polling brought on some level some interesting results, but from pollsters with spottier histories. Yes, there were new battleground surveys out of the Rust Belt (Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania), but it came from three landline-only samples from Emerson. In addition, there was a new poll released in Arizona from the pollster who has had one of the heavier Clinton leans of any firm in the Grand Canyon state thus far. The silver lining -- if one wants to look at it that way -- is that less representativ...